The Annual End of Programming as a Profession
I just read another article by another programmer predicting our demise because anyone will be able to create applications (web or otherwise) without coding. It is no different in essence to any other I’ve seen over the years, but I made this reply to him…
The COBOL language was created (~1960) with the intention of allowing non-programmers to create programs by letting them express code in verbose words and sentences.
Sixty+ years later, there are many times as many programmers - our numbers having exploded along with the technological advances. And every year of those 60 + years there are articles on how we are going to become dinosaurs as anyone will be able to create applications without "coding".
There are two fallacies at play here. 1) that tools can replace the tool-users, and 2) that there is nothing new to be coded, existing code (or components) can just be endlessly strung together (and that somehow this isn't "coding").
Tools can change the nature of how one works, making work easier in many respects, but "easier" isn't the right metric - *productivity* is the metric. We can do more, and do it more reliably, in less time as our tools advance. But that is not a recipe for obsolescence, it is always an opportunity to write even more advanced applications - to code things that were not practical or even possible previously.
Believing that advancements in programming tools, Artificial Intelligence, etc., can replace us is the same as believing that advances in metallurgy, plastics, and composites will mean we don't need to build anything anymore - no engineers needed - things can simply be snapped together by anyone - skyscrapers, airliners, space vehicles, CT scanners.
Believing that every application can be created by assembling existing components ignores the fact that there is always something new to create. There will always be something that no existing components or applications can do.
There is a famous story that in the year 1900 the manager of the U.S. Patent Office declared that the office might as well be closed as there is nothing left to be invented. This is the same mindset that annually predicts the end of programming.